Fantasy Baseball Insiders

EDIT: Erik Bedard will miss Tuesday’s start with a stiff shoulder.

Seattle Mariners’ pitcher Erik Bedard is scheduled to make his first start of the season against the Kansas City Royals on Tuesday.

The 31-year-old southpaw had surgery to repair a torn labrum last August, and hasn’t pitched since.

In three rehab starts (11 innings) between Rookie League and Triple-A this season, Bedard boasts a 1.64 ERA, 1.18 WHIP and a 14/3 K/BB ratio.

He’s worth an add in all leagues, though managers should be leery of his long-term value.

Since posting a 3.16 ERA with a 10.93 K/9 and 2.82 BB/9 in 182 innings in 2007, Bedard has combined to pitch just 164 innings in the last two seasons. In fact, he’s failed to reach the 200-inning mark in any one of his six seasons at the big league level.

Not only is Bedard extremely fragile, but he’s been wildly inconsistent as well. Here are his strikeout and walk rates since 2006:

• 2006: 7.84 K/9, 3.16 BB/9
• 2007: 10.93 K/9, 2.82 BB/9
• 2008: 8.00 K/9, 4.11 BB/9
• 2009: 9.76 K/9, 3.69 BB/9

Now his opponent’s batting average and WHIP totals since 2006:

• 2006: .261 BAA, 1.35 WHIP
• 2007: .216 BAA, 1.09 WHIP
• 2008: .235 BAA, 1.32 WHIP
• 2009: .217 BAA, 1.19 WHIP

While he was very good (2.82 ERA, 9.76 K/9, 3.69 BB/9) when he last pitched in ‘09, Bedard shouldn’t be counted on as a reliable fantasy pitcher.

Given a few favorable matchups, however, Bedard could provide above-average strikeout totals this season. With the stellar Seattle defense behind him, a respectable ERA could follow as well.

Still, his long-term value is bleak. If he pitches well through July, keeper/dynasty league owners should look to maximize his value before a killer WHIP or another DL stint destroys it.

Image courtesy of: Mark Sobba

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