According to The Hardball Times Glossary, the exact formula for BABIP is: (H-HR)/(AB-K-HR+SF).
The major league average for BABIP is usually around .300. In 2009, it was .299. The 2010 season saw the average BABIP fall slightly to .297.
Generally, if a player’s BABIP is well-above the major league average, we can conclude he has experienced some amount of good luck.
However, this is not always true. Some players such as Ichiro Suzuki (career .357) and Joe Mauer (career .344) have a knack for finding holes in the defense, which results in an inflated BABIP...
Opening Day 2010 is less than 72 hours away, which means most fantasy drafts have been completed. Judging by Average Draft Positions on Mock Draft Central, fantasy owners are allowing certain sleeper candidates to go un-drafted. One of those guys is Drew Stubbs, who has a current ADP of 311.40.
Last year, Baseball America claimed Stubbs “has excellent bat speed, above-average raw power, and plus-plus speed.” The former Texas Longhorn displayed both tools in 2009, as he combined to hit 11 HRs and swipe 56 bases in 668 at-bats between Triple-A and Cincinnati. Oddly enough, eight of his long balls came in just 196 at-bats at the big league level...
In 2008, Jay Bruce ranked among the top prospects in baseball. In fact, Baseball America claimed “every one of (his) tools is better than average”. Our friends at BA rated his power as high as a 70 on the 20-80 scouting scale, acknowledged his ability to hit for average, and even proclaimed Bruce capable of stealing 15 to 20 bases a season.
Two years later, Bruce appears primed for stardom, though most fantasy managers don’t realize it.
The 2007 season saw breakout campaigns from the likes of Ryan Braun, Carlos Pena, and Fausto Carmona. 2008 brought us the unlikely stories told by Josh Hamilton, Dustin Pedroia, Nate McClouth and Cliff Lee.
2009 was no different, as many players out played their draft day value, making them worthy of this year’s all-surprise team.
Monday, January 3, 2011
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